NBA 2013-14 Preview / Predictions

When I first began liking basketball, the NBA was full of watchable and marketable stars and teams: it was the end of Larry and Magic, and MJ was unstoppable. You had dynamic duos like Mike and Scottie, Clyde and Hakeem, Stockton and Malone, GP and Rain Man, Shaq and Lil' Penny, or my personal favorite, Chuck and Thunder Dan (I realize Mayor KJ was probably better than Dan Majerle, but c'mon, he's my favorite basketball player of all-time). Then you had other stars like Ewing, Reggie, David Robinson, Mitch Richmond, LJ, an old Dominique, a young Grant Hill, and of course, Shawn Bradley. Throw that in with NBC's awesome coverage and theme song, and mid to late 90's NBA basketball is one of my fondest childhood memories.

But then came an influx of unlikable and overpayed players mixed with NBC losing coverage, Michael leaving and even worse allowing his corpse to come back and play for the Wizzards, social media coming alive and revealing way too much about the lives of these used-to-be revered stars, the arrogant Lakers or monotonous Spurs winning every year, and me always seeming to go to summer camp in the middle of the finals. These all seemed to make my NBA excitement go dormant for nearly a decade and I turned to college basketball for most of my b-ball enjoyment.

Now things seem to be changing again. The one-and-done is ruining college basketball, NCAA corruption is not helping any college sports right now, many of the players I loved watching over the years in March Madness now play in the NBA, salaries have lowered, players I didn't like too much are retiring, the league is getting heavy at the top (many contenders) and not so heavy on the bottom (many tankers)--which makes the playoffs much more unpredictable and entertaining, and NBA stars are likable, or at least extremely watchable, again. Likable = Durant, Paul, Harden, Irving, and Curry; watchable = Lebron, Griffin, Westbrook, Rose; others = Dwight Howard (annoying) and Tony Parker (the ultimate "how is he so good?" guy). So I'm officially leaving college for the NBA this year. It's won my heart back. I'm actually so excited for this year, I was tempted for the first time ever to purchase NBA League Pass, but I like my wife a little too much to put her through that.

So to kick off this year, I've been getting ready looking at rosters and thinking of scenarios. I wanted to put together a post about some of my predictions and see how well I do next June. In a soon to come post, I'll give a brief prediction for each team, but first, with ESPN's #NBARank becoming a big thing now, I thought I would give my top 30 players right now (with their 2013's advanced stats).

1. Lebron (26.8 PPG, 31.6 PER, 19.3 total win shares (WS))
2. Durant (28.1 PPG, 28.3 PER, 18.9 WS)
3. CP3 (16.9 PPG, 26.4 PER, 13.9 WS)
4. D Rose (2012 stats in only 39 games played: 22.3 PPG 23.0 PER, 6 WS)
5. Kobe (27.3 PPG 23.0 PER, 10.9 WS)
6. Tony Parker (20.3 PPG, 23.0 PER, 9.3 WS)
7. Harden (25.9 PPG, 23.0 PER, 12.8 WS, Best Beard Award)
8. Westbrook (23.2 PPG, 23.9 PER, 11.6 WS)
9. D Wade (21.2 PPG, 24.0 PER, 9.6 WS)
10. Steph Curry (22.9 PPG, 21.3 PER, 11.2 WS)
11. Carmelo (28.7 PPG,  24.8 PER, 9.5 WS)
12. Duncan (17.8 PPG, 24.4 PER, 8.3 WS)
13. Dwight (17.1 PPG, 19.4 PER, 7.6 WS)
14. Kevin Love (2012: 24.0 PPG, 25.4 PER, 10 WS)
15. Blake Griffin (18.0 PPG, 22.4 PER, 10.6 WS)
16. Kyrie (22.5 PPG, 21.4 PER, 5.3 WS)
17. Rondo (13.7 PPG, 18.1 PER, 3.2 WS)
18. D Will (18.9 PPG, 20.3 PER, 10.9 WS)
19. Dirk (17.3 PPG, 19.8 PER, 5 WS)
20. Bosh (16.6 PPG, 20.0 PER, 9 WS)
21. Gasol - not Pau (14.1 PPG, 19.5 PER, 11.5 WS)
22. P George (17.4 PPG, 16.8 PER, 9 WS)
23. Horford (17.3 PPG, 19.8 PER, 8.8 WS)
24. John Wall (18.5 PPG, 20.8 PER, 4.5 WS)
25. The Truth (18.6 PPG, 19.1 PER, 7.2 WS)
26. Aldridge (21.1 PPG, 20.4 PER, 7.2 WS)
27. Z-Bo (15.4 PPG, 17.9 PER, 7.9 WS)
28. D Lee (18.5 PPG, 19.2 PER, 9.1 WS)
29. Brook Lopez (19.4 PPG, 24.7 PER, 9.0 WS -- I know, a little low for those efficiency numbers on a 4-seeded playoff team, but you also have to add horrible defense, guard-like rebounding numbers and "the dumbest sounding former Stanford student" award)
30. Roy Hibbert (11.9 PPG, 17.3 PER, 6.1 WS, and Miami kryptonite)  

*A few notes: If you could combine Lopez's offense with Hibbert's defense, I think you get a top 10 player easy. NBArank was really hatin' on Paul Pierce and David Lee with rankings in the 40 and 50's after really good years on playoff teams; I like them much better I guess. I think Dirk is in for another big comeback year this year. And I think Anthony Davis easily makes this list after this season.

Some quick predictions for player awards and all-NBA:

MVP - KD! I think he finally wins it due to some voters getting sick of voting for Lebron year after year and because Durant will have to average like 35 and carry his laughable roster until Russell comes back.
Defensive player of the year - Lebron (voters will make up for no MVP here)
Most Improved - Derrick Favors
Sixth Man - Iggy, but he may start, so really I don't know . . .
Rookie of the year - I wanted to go with Kentavious Caldwell Pope because his name is so cool and I think he'll get quality minutes for Detroit, but I can't. My more educated guess is Oladipo.
 
All NBA
First 
Lebron, KD, Dwight, CP, and DRose
Second
PG, Dirk, Marc Gasol, Curry, Harden
Third
Horford, Carmelo, Anthony Davis, Tony Parker, DWade

Well, we'll see how these pan out. Hope you come back next time for team and playoff predictions.